Here are my two predictions…
- In the year 2026 (10 years from when I make this prediction), in 1st world countries, more than 50% of bicycles sold will have a battery built in. It may just be to change gears (eg Di2) or power a light, but will likely power the bike.
- eMTBs will be available with smaller less-powerful motors and batteries than commuter and touring ebikes, and it will be feasible to carry multiple of these smaller batteries. The purpose will be to get you up hills so that you get down with gravity and less weight penalty.
Hi Barry, First more than 70% of all bikes sold in the Netherlands are E-bikes. And that already for the last 5 years. So I belief that within the next 5 years more than 50% of the new bikes will be E-bikes.
I do no belief you second item. Batteries are sill becoming higher in capacity. And smaller packs reduces the range (anxiety) and no mountain biker wants that. The weight of a pack is not the limiting factor. However extra packs are. I have a full suspension bike with a 48V 12Ah high output battery pack, build under 20Kg, with stand, mudguards, lights, alarm and carrier. The biggest weight is the motor. My sons mountain bike is 36V 10.5Ah and weights 17kg.